Winter Watch Articles

  • Follow-up on the Catastrophes

    October 14, 2026 1
    Isaias alert: ILS estimate widens the credible insured-loss range 1. What changed Euler ILS Partners now estimates US$2–4 billion of industry insured losses, versus Cotality’s US$2–3 billion estimate and the roughly US$1 billion figure cited [...]
  • The Minsky Moment Conversation About Housing

    October 13, 2026 0
    UPDATE: As of this morning, 43.4% of all US homes for sale are now undergoing price cuts. This is the highest read all year, up an additional 70 basis points from this time last week. [...]
  • Reaching GFC Levels of Delinquency

    October 12, 2026 0
    I might as well starting sharing my ChatGpt notes: Note: BAA is very crowded trade. many of these masters of the universe types are playing it. This is potentially very bad news for ABS valuations, [...]
  • Numerous Black Swans and the Minsky Moment

    October 11, 2026 9
    There are currently four major catastrophes juggling simultaneously: Hurricane Isaias, Mega hurricane Simon in Mexico, Tropical Storm Rachel: Southern California and Southwest, and the Panama earthquake. Worrying update for #Hurricane #Simon. The eye is now [...]
  • “Art of the Deal” Big Brain Trump Pulls Off Phony Diesel Scam With Russia

    October 10, 2026 2
    This post is based on an analysis with Chat gpt. Big Brain claims he made a massive diesel deal with Putin to save the day in the lead up to the Midterm elections. Whether his [...]
  • Dr. Lauretta Bender: Yet Another Acclaimed Psychiatric Quack

    October 9, 2026 7
    Lauretta Bender (1897-1987) was a Jewish-American pediatric neuropsychiatrist and a major human-experimentation empty-suit quack. She began working at New York City’s Bellevue Hospital in 1930 and, in 1934, was awarded the position of senior psychiatrist at the Children’s [...]
  • Fearsome Threesome: Fetzer, Hagopian, Winter

    October 8, 2026 1
    The lab accident threatening a new pandemic appears to have been a routine mistake that is not mass-life-threatening, but has to do with dealing with threats arising from animal life on the border of Russia [...]

‘Big Short’ Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst