TNN Author’s Note: The Las Vegas Mandalay shooting is as extreme and as large scale as these events come. It will take some time to analyze. Therefore, this post will be pinned first for a couple days and continually revised. ‘TNN Takeaways’ will be dynamic, not fixed.
TPTB are reporting at least 59 killed and 527 injured from sniper firing of “up to 300 rounds” from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Hotel Casino. The gunman’s brother said the shooter “was not an avid gun guy at all. He has no military background.”
Paddock checked in at the Mandalay Bay Hotel using his girlfriend’s I.D. Really?? She had a different last name, is of a different race and was out of the country. He then hauled in 23 guns, two tripods and thousands of rounds of ammo in 10 humongous bags. All this was conducted under the watchful eyes of what experts are calling one of the most surveilled locations in the world. The New Nationalist (TNN) awaits the CCTV footage of this transport operation with baited breath. This security was so bad, we are wondering aloud about possible commercial sabotage.
The firing line and distance is said to be around 500 meters. I was looking through a few gun forums on the question of the effective range of an AR-15 (one of the guns reported as used), and in general it is 600 meters for a trained marksman using a scope. Paddock was not trained nor conditioned enough to handle an AR. The firing accuracy is reduced with the automatic fire employed. From the height of 32 floors, the “marksman” would need to make difficult range adjustments. The sniper is also firing at night at dark targets that are scattering and moving. Wind was 10 mph, also influencing the shots from an elevation high on a building.
Reports on the duration of the event are contradictory, with the MSM saying 10 minutes and various witnesses saying 30.
However, here is footage and audio of the first two minutes. The sniper fired three bursts at video minute 0:06-0:16, and not again until 0:52-1:02, and then at 1:20-1:30, then nothing until end of video at 2:02. I have tried to estimate and came up with about 150 rounds during 30 seconds of firing. So that would be about half of the rounds reported used.
You will notice that the crowd doesn’t react to the first burst, nor can I make out anybody being hit. When the second burst goes off, the crowd starts to scatter, although strangely many just sit down on the pavement. By the third burst many are on the move in the direction out of range of the sniper. This is more evident in the second compilation video below, as I am using this one for audio purposes of the gun bursts.
EYEWITNESS: Chilling footage of moment active shooter opened fire on concert goers near Mandalay Bay resort in Las Vegas pic.twitter.com/hAMpYlJ5Mo
— Izak Pratt (@IzakPratt) October 2, 2017
In a second clip, there was a burst lasting about 18 seconds and numerous attendees can be seen on the run. Net-net, by the third burst at video minute 1:20, there was ample time for people to scatter, if they saw others going down. However, in this dark compilation footage we could spot only one person down. And after an estimated 150 rounds with a 2-for-1 casualty-round ratio, you can see some people slip or drop and get back up, but I doubt that would be from taking a round. The video loops over and over. Incidentally, there is excellent cover offered by the stage area, and you can see people there in front of it.
The next video shows an elevated “balcony view.” Video quality is only fair because it’s dark. If there are mass casualties, they are obscured and not readily visible. However, one can get a sense of the crowd size and reaction and see many quickly hightailing it out of there.
A casualty rate of two per round on moving targets in darkness from that distance at the hands of an older man with little or no weapons experience is one for the ages and not really plausible. The question of whether he could do it with his skill set is completely separate from the question every one is asking: Why would a well-off, 64-year-old man engage in this large-scale, murderous activity?
Footage of Eyewitnesses in the Audience
In the following compilation video, panicked and terrified people can be seen and heard on site. This will give you a good sense of the scene. We are hoping good, probing interviews materialize with these folks. If so, we will report. If you spot them, please leave in comments.
Go to minute 1:33 of the following video, when an older gentleman on site calmly states: “Somebody is tapped into the sound system. There’s no hits.”
At 5:10, with rounds going off, you hear a man state: “We’ve got some fake gun shots.”
At 7:42, an eyewitness repeats several times: “It’s fireworks.” In the background, again there is pandemonium but no evidence of death and carnage. In going through photos, this one finally appears twenty four hours after the event.
At minute 9:22, we witness people being hauled around by untrained personnel on what appears to be makeshift stretchers made of railing. This may not be entirely implausible and could suggest a hybrid event with real casualties combined with deceptions. There is a glimpse of medical personnel at the end.
The Patsy and 2nd-Shooter Theory
Almost all the events TNN has covered — especially during the Obama administration — are staged deceptions and fakes. Most of them are crudely done with B-team actors. Could Las Vegas mark a horrific turn of events and be a true Gladio-style attack with real casualties?
Were there 22,000 attendees or something far less? Based on prior year’s festivals, it sounds like about 25 to 30 thousand is the total attendance of the entire three-day festival — not the number of people listening to the last song of the last concert on the last day of a weekend-long event.
Of course, we are in no way suggesting that there were 7,000 actors. But certainly an audience peppered with actors could stampede a crowd, and there is plenty of footage suggesting just that. Initial social media camera footage looks normal, not all suspiciously grainy as we usually see with these events. In the previous video, you even hear one guy standing up to film the audience, saying, “Everybody is just lying down,” as he scans the audience. I have listened to news interviews of eyewitnesses. They sound more credible, but confused as to what they witnessed.
Although we question the 600-casualty count as exaggerated, we would say this may be an actual Gladio event, a theory worth pursing. The following video gives indications of a shooter on the fourth floor. Both witnesses and the police units themselves were reporting multiple shooters.
Early reports claimed ISIS pronounced Paddock its “soldier” and a recent convert to Islam, but the FBI refuted this report. Police say the motive is unclear. If mainstream media ends up running with the ludicrous ISIS narrative on an 64-year-old American-raised gambler, that’s all you need to know to consider the Paddock set-up contrived.
Paddock’s father, Benjamin Paddock, was a convicted bank robber and on the FBI’s 10 Most Wanted list after escaping from prison in 1968. He was on the run for 10 years and diagnosed as a psychopath. This would make Paddock a good patsy candidate and target for a genetic mental-health narrative. However, Paddock had no criminal record and was not a known factor to local police.
There are private airplane hangers adjacent to the hotel, which has direct access to runways useful for bringing assets in and out and also for staging purposes. The performance venue itself was closed off and corralled. Paddock himself was pilot and private-plane owner.
Update at 8:40 a.m. EST: Crime Syndicate Leaves Its Calling Card
The following video looks like CGI. The behaviors are beyond bizarre, with people blabbing away like they are drugged, and I suppose they could be. It looks like the main crowd has cleared out, but we have a contingent lurking behind smokin’ and jokin’ for the Zombie Apocalypse after party.
Some stand around blowing smoke into the air like they are having a casual conversation. Others stroll along like they are on a romantic fall evening walk. Others are still milling out in the open at this late stage. Apparently they’re trying create a trauma-based horror effect with corpses laid out in front of the stage? The bright lights are switched on for full surreal illumination as AR rounds go off in the background.
Update on October 4, 2:30 a. m. EST
Apparently Las Vegas police are upset about crime scene photos that have been leaked. I can see why. The first photo below shows the patsy Paddock dead on the scene. Inquiring minds would like to know how a man can shoot himself in the face [see second photo] and end up laying under a tripod. How does that work?
Note resting place of handgun used at some distance from his bloodied face.
This is a photo of two individuals hauling an alleged injured person. On one side, she is hung by the arms. Don’t try this life-threatening method at home on a real injured person as it makes the situation even worse. These people appear to be indoors and sheltered, making the need for handling this woman in this manner not only unnecessary but highly problematic.
Updates October 4, 4:00 a.m. EST
Carnage photo emerges on Live Leaks. I will provide link as it allows enlargement. I can spot several individuals standing out on the grass field. We see a dozen or so huddled in the bleachers. Inquiring minds would like to know: In an active shooter situation, why would they turn on bright lights, illuminating the targets?
Clear and, in my opinion, realistic video has just emerged on Live Leaks of an individual performing triage on casualties. He calls for EMT at minute 2:00. He seems to have a head-mounted POV Go Pro. These casualties seem clustered together. At 2:27, we get a glimpse that they are along the fence line close to where the other photo was taken. You can see the Luxor obelisk in the background in both this and the field photo images. At 3:10, the lights are turned off, and the POV guy argues with someone that the active shooter situation is over and they need the lights for the triage effort.
This scene is very different from the obvious dapper cadavers and blurry images of previous events. If fake, it marks a whole new level of production quality. Although we get a little thumb in front of camera, there is nothing here that just insults the intelligence or is blatant fakery like previous events. If this is fakery, well done Crime Syndicate, A-team work all the way. That said, this is the best evidence seen to support at least a hybrid-Gladio event.
New late-arriving eyewitness video emerging of good quality. The filmer is vocal and observant and it’s from start to finish — thus, it rates high for the historical-record purposes. You can see no hits on the crowd.
At minute 1:38-1:45, an on-the-ground eyewitness states, “You hear the sound of the pops? That means they are not real bullets.” After the stampede begins, the same guy at min. 3:35 says, “Holy shit, I think she is really hurt.” This does not preclude staging, as they could have wounded actor props lined up along the exit that real attendees would witness. At 4:50, after witnessing the critical minutes, he says, “I hope everybody is alright,” which implies he never viewed any casualties other than maybe the one at 3:35. At 4:47 his girl friend exclaims, “That’s must fucking fun we’ve had in three days”- hardly indicating she just witnessed a mass casualty event. A few seconds later they duck from gunfire- which he says, “That’s close!”. Was close from inside the festival?
Update and Takeaway on October 4 at 6:00 a.m. EST
As events go, this one has all the ingredients. It is not a closed book, but a longer-term project.
If this was a 100% staged deception, they brought in about 10 high-quality A-teams for it. The triage video that came out overnight (discussed above) is very realistic and not the buffoonery of other events. The newest on-the-ground stampede video above demonstrates real skill in crowd psychology and how they implant impressions on the real participants.
There are signs this may be a hybrid with real murderous carnage mixed in with stagecraft. I have to hand it to the Crime Syndicate (CS) on this one though, they’ve ramped up and upgraded their game in many respects. Almost like a new coach has been brought in. Ultimately however in looking at the videos available I don’t see anybody being hit in this location, or for that matter anywhere else.
The weak link for the CS: Paddock is the shooter caricature of a patsy, who would have never been able to pull this off alone. Now we will have to see if the CS’ hubris gets the better of it and it badly screws up.
Now we learn that old-man super-criminal Paddock filmed himself during his alleged rampage. Really? And here I was just hoping for simple CCTV footage of how this soft old accountant got in with 23 guns, two tripods and thousands of rounds stuffed into 10 monster-sized bags. Is this the hubris?
— CBS News (@CBSNews) October 3, 2017
The following scant timeline of the event is offered by the Daily Fail:
TIMELINE OF TERROR IN VEGAS
Country music star Jason Aldean was performing on stage at the Route 91 Harvest Music Festival when lone gunman Stephen Paddock, 64, opened fire on the 22,000 people gathered.
About 10 p.m.: Paddock smashes out two windows on the 32nd floor with a hammer-like implement and opens fire with his arsenal of at least 19 weapons – including fully automatic weapons.
10:08 p.m.: First phone call to police that shots had been fired at the festival outside the Mandalay Bay Hotel and Casino on the Las Vegas Strip.
10:38 p.m.: Police in Las Vegas say that they are ‘investigating reports of an active shooter’ near to the Mandalay Bay.
11:08 p.m.: Las Vegas police confirm they have shut down a portion of The Strip.
11:20 p.m.: SWAT teams storm the 32nd floor room that Stephen Paddock was firing from. They gained entry using flashbangs designed to stun the shooter. Paddock fired through the door as SWAT teams were trying to breach the room. By the time they entered the room, he had shot himself dead. Seventy-two minutes elapsed from the first 911 call to Paddock being found dead.