This typically most impacts countries with large numbers of poor like the US. 42 million in US are below poverty line.
Around one third of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and shortages now could reduce future crop yields. Nitrogen fertilizer goes into about half of all crops grown globally.
The American Farm Bureau Federation reports that US row crop farmers are facing $31B in losses this year.
Brace for higher food prices… US Corn Belt farmers are facing their worst crisis in 40 years thanks to the Iran war.
– Diesel is up ~100% ytd
– Fertilizer surged ~100% during planting season
= Production costs are explodingThe Corn Belt accounts for ~80% of US corn… pic.twitter.com/6wFiqWcS4Q
— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) August 27, 2026
At the same time, there’s a 90%+ chance of a very strong El Niño, putting even more pressure on harvests. A powerful El Niño can bring severe droughts and floods to major farming regions, damaging crops and reducing food production. And unlike oil, there is no strategic reserve of fertilizer waiting to fix the shortage, which makes the crisis even worse.
Key food commodity wheat starting to go parabolic.
Wheat jumps to highest price in more than 3 years 📈 📈 Gonna have to switch to Lettuce wrap sandwiches 😭 pic.twitter.com/aA9brcobzF
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 27, 2026
Corn on track for highest weekly close in more than 3 years 📈 🌽 pic.twitter.com/iK5gLw1r2K
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 28, 2026
Cattle herds are at 75 year low.
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