The Treasury debt rollovers doesn’t even include new multi-trillion debt issuance. For instance the big brains running this chicken outfit want to blow the defense budget out to $1.5 trillion. In the next 12 months, $8T plus of Treasuries needs to be rolled. The average coupon of that debt is 3.3%. The 2‑year Treasury is 4.3%. Even if they tried to cram most of the rollover into short term T-bills they will encounter a dead end. The 3 month bill yield is close to 4.0%.
Current interest expense pre-rollover:
Tariffs were pitched as the fix for America’s trade deficit.
Instead…
Last 18 Months: –$1.80 trillion deficit in Goods.
18 Months Prior: –$1.74 trillion deficit in Goods.The deficit didn’t shrink. It increased 4%. pic.twitter.com/Zq9ylKvT7v
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 29, 2026
And is the US Dollar nearing the end of the line?
You know something is fundamentally broken when yields surge and your currency can’t rally.
This is one of the defining macro signals of our time:
America’s debt burden is turning higher yields into evidence of fiscal stress.
None of us own enough hard assets.… pic.twitter.com/KGBW8CcDoa
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 30, 2026
Now one of the day late dollar short mucky mucks who has influenced the dilemma and who controls Aunt Millie’s savings and pension has proclaimed that the economy is f—cked. Whodathunk?
Wheat from Russia-Ukraine diminished as El Nino takes hold.
Now that the Chicken Outfit has elected to proceed with depleted munitions like blue hairs dumping coins into Mariam Adelson’s slot machine, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has hit functional bottom. The end of July marks the end of the SPR release rounds. Will the “planners” add an additional gamble that the salt caverns can survive more draws? And how many more cry wolf lies about Iran begging for a deal can the “markets” endure?
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