‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.’ – Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, founder of the Russian Communist Party, leader of the Bolshevik Revolution
The kakistocracy is merging with the medical quackistocracy and creating an unprecedented labor and supply-chain crisis with severe supply- AND demand-side inflation.
There are shortages of truckers, bus drivers and workers at warehouses, ports, retailers, restaurants, hospitals and nursing homes. In the midst of all this, President Biden chose to impose vaccine mandates on workers — even for people who have already had Covid-19 — thereby driving even more people into early retirement and causing a downshift movement in commerce and economic activity.
Late last year, before the Dementia Joe’s election, the Lugenpresse called concerns over vaccine “passports” a right-wing conspiracy theory. Today, it’s a conspiracy fact. Now, the kakistocracy is mulling a new rule requiring vax I.D. cards for all interstate travel. Meanwhile, in some areas, like New York, it’s a requirement to dine out or shop. We suspect it may soon become a requirement to renew one’s driver’s license, passport or visa, and to receive funds from employer/employee-paid programs, such as unemployment insurance, social security benefits and Medicare.
People around the world — or at least some — are being rightly radicalized by bad and corrupt policies and mistreatment of their people by those with money and power. Workers at Alitalia, for example — Italy’s No. 1 airline — are on strike because of the Covid mandates. They are rejecting their own union, which has been corrupted from above.
With kakistocracy kingpin Biden’s federal vaccine mandate set to take effect on Monday for some workers, health-care systems around the country are suspending elective in-patient surgeries and refusing to accept ICU patients from other hospitals as they brace for walkouts by hundreds of nurses, critical staffers and even doctors who refuse to be jabbed by babblin’ Biden’s arbitrary deadline.
Erie County Medical Center in Buffalo is planning to fire about 400 employees who have chosen not to get the jab required by the edict, which was pushed through despite being blocked by a federal judge, according to The New York Slimes.
Officials at Northwell Health, the state’s largest health-care provider, estimate that NWH might be forced to fire thousands of people who have refused to get jabbed.
The latest New York governor to crawl out from under a slimy rock, Kathy Hochul, demonstrated full-tilt satanic inversion and declared — without even a hint of self-awareness — that “what is looming for Monday is completely avoidable, and there’s no excuses.”
Hochul is a full fledged Branch Covidian even declaring in front of a megachurch: “The vaccine comes from God” I need you to be my apostles.”
Despite the fact that vaccination rates are much lower in most of the world outside the U.S., magical-thinking kakistocrat Hochul threatened to find “foreign workers” to staff the Empire State’s hospitals and care homes.
I didn’t realize they had 70k National Guard members who are highly skilled and experienced nurses. That’s amazing! I’m sure the quality of care won’t go down one bit.
— MJBedford (@btcbedford) September 27, 2021
In Fidelito’s Canada, bars and restaurant associations say sales have dropped more than 40 percent in the majority of the establishments they represent. Many are considering closing until this new restrictions are permanently lifted. The restaurants, as we predicted here, are objecting and balking at enforcing these satanic measures against their customers.
Meat reserves have plunged to dangerously low levels, according to Bloomberg. A U.S. report Wednesday showed beef reserves down 7.7% from a year ago in August. Poultry supplies slumped 20% and pork bellies, which are sliced into bacon, dropped 44% to the lowest levels since 2017.
Wim Lagaay, chief executive of APM Terminals North America, which operates at the port of Los Angeles, said, “If you work a gate 24/7, it will improve your velocity. Up to 30% of overall truck appointments are not met because there are not enough trucks, drivers or chassis.”
According to Reuters, citing comments made by the retail industry to the U.K. government: “Unless new drivers are found in the next 10 days, it is inevitable that we will see significant disruption in the run-up to Christmas,” Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, the retail industry’s lobby group, said on Friday.
The cause of this fiasco is again self-inflicted, as the kakistocrats suspended driver training for a year during the scamdemic. Additionally, as was seen in other western countries, older drivers have retired.
The U.S.’ largest toilet-paper maker, Procter & Gamble, is experiencing overwhelming demand on top of logistical and labor disruptions that have hindered how quickly goods move through the country.
The inflation comments in a thread here from Costco’s conference call last night:
“inflationary factors abound: higher labor costs, higher freight costs, higher transportation demand, along with container shortages and port delays, increased demand in certain product categories,
— Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar) September 24, 2021
US Services PMI Plunges To 14-Month Low As Input Prices Soar https://t.co/vRtC1EYuDF
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2021
Good transitory morning to ya. pic.twitter.com/NHrnUAbr9j
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) September 28, 2021
Europe’s energy crunch is continuing, as gas storage volumes shrunk to 10-year lows. A possible harsh or dark winter could lead to severe energy shortages and possible shutdowns of large parts of the economy.
“Brent oil prices have reached new highs since October 2018, and we forecast that this rally will continue, with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl,” Goldman Sachs reports.
At the same time, the era of cheap imports from China is over. This has nothing to do with the Minsky Moments occurring with China’s Ponzi-financed property developers.
The crackdown on power consumption is being driven by rising demand for electricity and surging coal and gas prices as well as strict targets from Beijing to cut emissions. It’s coming first to the country’s mammoth manufacturing industries: from aluminum smelters to textiles producers and soybean processing plants, factories are being ordered to curb activity or — in some instances — shut altogether. Almost half of China’s 23 provinces missed energy intensity targets set by Beijing and are now under pressure to curb power use.
Among the worst hit are Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong — a trio of industrial powerhouses that account for nearly a third of China’s economy.
Yunnan Aluminum Co., a $9 billion producer of the metal used in everything from cars to soda cans, has curtailed output due to pressure from Beijing. The shock is also being felt in China’s giant food sector. Soybean crushers, which process the crop into edible oils and animal feed, were ordered to shut this week in the city of Tianjin. According to Nikkei, suppliers to Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. halted production at some of their sites in China on Sunday.
In a “dear colleague” letter to members of the Democratic Caucus over the weekend, Nancy Pelosi warned that they’ll have one week to “pass the Continuing Resolution, Build Back Better Act and the BIF (Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework), adding that Sept. 30 is a “date fraught with meaning.” In other words, on that date, at midnight, the government will have to fund itself or shut down and risk a U.S. debt default.
— Winter Watch (@New_Nationalist) September 27, 2021
Sept. 30 is also a curious date for the stock market as it marks the beginning of a significant corporate stock-buyback blackout period that will extend through the end of October. FYI: Stock buybacks, using debt issuance, has been a significant driver of the bubble mania. This removes an integral cornerstone propping up the market. The marker “today” on the chart below is Friday, Sept. 24. Volume in yesterday Monday’s session was fume like, indicating a dearth of bids.
Without the artificial buybacks, the market is vulnerable to any reasonable level of selling over the next month. Canary-in-the-mineshaft companies — like Federal Express, Disney and Nike — have already disappointed on earnings and guidance. With the stymies no longer bloating economic activity and with the lack of goods and inflation wiping out purchasing power, look for the shortfalls to accelerate.
What to Do?
I don’t want to make recommendations or impart advice on precise timing in a market as manipulated and fraudulent as this one, but I will say that I have nine gold mining-sector stocks I’ve been recently accumulating. As a rule I am using advanced stage projects with enterprise value to NPV of less than a third. I am also seriously short the market- not especially recommended to do at home.
I’m also willing to share a scattering of meaningful charts, data points and thinking-out-loud notes, which I’ve been DM’ing with my son on Twitter.
- HSBC is the stress point on these China USD foreign debt holders. They may be too big to fail but have few friends in China.
- Four hawkish Fed governors join voting members in January. Inflation then will be extremely neglected and raging. However-
Curious that the incoming hawks suddenly have “ethics problems”
— Winter Watch (@New_Nationalist) September 27, 2021
- Comex open interest in gold is quite low at 496,629 , as is silver at 143,477. Very thinned-out low open interest markets normally are bullish, but price can get push around in either direction.
- Sprott has CEF- 63% gold, 37% silver, trades at 3.3% discount to NAV. Sprott has PHYS (physcial gold) 1.4% discount NAV, and PSLV (physical silver) 3.08% discount to NAV.
- Super bullish case for silver, which is used in EV and clean energy. The backside of this interview is good, too, as he speaks to what a joke trying to mine in Mexico (largest source of Ag) is now. This equates to supply constraints and tight markets developing.
- The launchpad and enormous multiyear support for Ag was 18-19. It had a rocket move and then formed a triple top. The question is the chart. Can it hold at 22, or does it have to fully retreat to 18-19. I’m a skeptic about more downside as the hedge funds are already short (very rare event) and not long at 22. It’s a play not to be missed because of the upside, but suppose it is possible that the hedgies willy nilly dump 40,000 short contracts into a thin market and take it to long-term support, or try to manipulate through 22 support to hit stops. What do you think? My son’s answer is legit: Scale in if hits successive lower-price levels. But that also risks missing a serious entry or under-investing. Who says market are easy.
This equals revolution and civil disorder.
Do you guys wanna know how f*cked supply chain situation specifically fertilizer/food market is? Nutrien which is literally the biggest distributor of fertilizer in the world just called us and asked if we have some fertilizers for them to buy from us!🤯😱
— Amir (@tajer_amir) September 23, 2021
Son’s response: Yep, and then U.S. put sanctions on Belarus fertilizer, one of world’s biggest.
Best guess(wish COT wasn’t so lagging) is at least another -20K net contracts lower as of today, bringing hedgies’ positions to around 20K+ contracts(maybe less). Last time that low: May 2019 (see chart below). Can always go lower of course, as they’ve been net short couple times pic.twitter.com/n8nlZ8kwWR
— fred hickey (@htsfhickey) September 24, 2021
My tweet response: 28k off of 46k would put managed money (fund) at only 18k. They have effectively liquidated most of their gold and as Hickey notes are net short silver. At 1740 POG where we trade as I post we must be at only about net 10K fund longs.
$28 POG drop since CoT report date of Tuesday. I say at 1747, they are 28k lower, and approaching nearly flat and entirely liquidated.
— Winter Watch (@New_Nationalist) September 24, 2021
My note to my son: For $1,675 gold and $18 silver to transpire, the managed money boyz would need to short unprecedented amounts of naked paper contracts, perhaps 70,000 contracts, and reduce open interest by a similar amount. This would drain all the physical vaults in the west and set up a huge short squeeze. If that happened, a $500 to $600 rally or more would then ensue.
This mining stock rally of 73-74 happened in a backdrop of rising interest rates.