Why the models warning of a 3rd UK Covid wave are flawed

PHOTO: Daily Express

Much of the data suggesting a surge in hospital admissions and deaths this summer is needlessly negative and often out of date

By Sarah Knapton | 6 April 2021

THE TELEGRAPH — Hopes that life may soon be back to normal were dashed by Boris Johnson this week when he indicated that restrictions would remain in place to prevent a deadly third coronavirus wave.

Predictably, the announcement relied on unduly pessimistic modelling, which suggested a full release from lockdown in June could trigger a new wave of hospital admissions every bit as bad as the January peak and result in up to 59,900 deaths.

It seems absurd that Britain should find itself facing a similar situation to the second wave after an extremely successful vaccination programme.

Look more closely at the modelling from Imperial College, Warwick University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and it soon becomes clear how such dire forecasts have emerged. Much of the data is needlessly negative and often out-of-date – but here are the reasons why things are not quite so bleak. […]

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