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Coronavirus (nCOv) as a Black Swan Event

Black swans swim at a zoo in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. PHOTO: Winter Watch/Reuters/China

Black Swan Event: An unpredictable event that has potentially severe consequences. Characterized by its extreme rarity and its severe impact. Can cause catastrophic damage to an economy and, because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems. Money printing and plunge protection teams does not constitute a robust response. 


The economic impact from the coronavirua (nCOv) is now baked in and can only accelerate. China extended its new year celebrations until Feb 9. There’s no way it comes back to business to any significant degree on the 10th. And how much more was the epidemic spread domestically during the holiday?

The shutting down of whole Chinese cities, says to me that this is much more serious than reported. Hong Kong reports first coronavirus death and is expected to close its borders today. American Airlines Group, the largest US carrier says it has suspended all its flights to and from Hong Kong.

Chinese authorities have enforced full community lockdown in Nanjing Province, population 8.35 million.

Empty streets in Beijing Feb. 4th.

As we go to press Shanghai has been locked down.

Movement of goods is curtailed in China. Trade from neighbors, such as Vietnam, is waning.

At press time India cancels valid visas to Chinese, and foreigners who visited China in last two weeks.

Politically correct Canada is asking for it. Entry granted without so much as a temperature reading.

A city of 10 million needs a supply of up to 30 million meals per day. How long do home food supplies last before the entire distribution system collapses? That’s the question seemingly few are addressing.

A University of Penn student in Wuhan calls it a zombie apocalypse where people are trapped. There are no vehicles on the street, everyone is hiding out in their homes, and businesses have all shuttered in the city of 11 million people.

Now threatening the food supply comes a “highly pathogenic” strain of the H5N1 bird flu reported in China’s Hunan province, Chinese officials said, according to a Saturday report from Reuters. This flu can potentially spread to humans and be extremely lethal — creating a megadeath black swan swarm.

Shortages cause price spikes, which causes pessimism — this, including the fact that the U.S. and China are highly leveraged optimism-fueled economies. What happens if vested interests actually start to worry their capital is under threat? Can interfering with the markets alter the reality? Financial markets have already long ago divorced from any fundamental underpinning.

Basic supplies to deal with a pandemic are in short supply. Let me guess. None of these items are manufactured in Australia. The majority are made in China. Whodathunk.

There are official claims of 20,613 confirmed cases and 427 deaths. But we do not know real numbers of infected and dead. It wasn’t until mid January, that doctors starting testing for the virus. Even so, 291 cases on Jan 20 and 20,613 cases 15 days later is not exactly cause for complacency. There are 171,329 “under observation.”

Update Feb.5: This meaningless official claim of 28,018 confirmed cases on Chinese mainland, 236 cases in other countries, including 21 in HK, 10 in Macao, 20 on board a cruise ship in Japan and 11 in Taiwan – 563 deaths

Hong Kong University doctor and epidemiologist Gabriel Leung and his team said in a Jan. 31 report: “In our baseline scenario, we estimated 75,185 infections as of Jan 25.”  And they were reporting on Wuhan alone. The pandemic is already exponential. 

Significant percentages of the infection survivors will suffer from myocarditis and other heart and lung conditions/injury as the virus penetrates the heart muscle. Clinical features and complications of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan include acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]).

Dr. Francis Boyle, creator of the U.S. Bioweapons Act states: “The virus is potentially lethal and an offensive biological warfare weapon … which is why the Chinese government originally tried to cover it up.”

No. 2019nCoV survives in the excrement of the infected. This strongly suggests fecal as well as respiratory transmission is possible and challenges sewage treatment. In Africa, southeast Asia, and sub-continent India, this waste and respiratory combination would be deadly.

The virus survives five days on a normal surface. Mobile phone screens, computer keyboards, tables, faucets, dishware and other household objects may transmit the virus.

There are one million Chinese contractors working across Africa and coming and going from China. For example, Ethiopia has multiple flights to Chinese hubs and is operating business as usual. Bole, Ethiopia, in turn, connects to 45 African destinations.

There are suspected cases but, truthfully, are there no confirmed cases yet in Africa? Highly unlikely. There must be suppression and/or poor testing there given Africa’s importance to China’s plans. At the moment there are only two labs in the whole of Africa which can test for the virus, and countries (including Ethiopia) with a substantial level of travel to and from China.

Winter Watch takeaway: Look for Africa to emerge as the knockout blow.

This is massively under-counted due to (a) infected people not getting sick enough to get tested but can still infect others; (b) overwhelmed medical centers not being able to test everyone; and (c) political pressures to under-report wherever possible. (d) tendency for many people to avoid authorities, self quarantine and ride out infection alone or with close family members.

People are not exactly submitting to being taken away willingly.

There are five to 14 days between “confirmed infection” and “death,” which makes the claim of a 3% fatality rate problematic. In fact, many deaths will not be that quick, meaning death tolls will lag. People are dying in place in their homes, even of secondary causes like heart failure and effects of pneumonia after the flu has passed. This will be slow to be counted, if at all. There are many videos of people in body bags being removed from apartment flats.

Testing for coronavirus can be very inaccurate. Officials report it can take several tests to get a confirmation.

The big stampede out of Wuhan and nearby cities before they were locked down was around Jan. 22-25. An estimated 5 million escaped the epicenter cities. On average, one affected person infects at least four others with nCOv. It takes three to 14 days for any symptoms to show. That means many of those infected will only show a spike in sickness this week. Unlike most flus, there is no herd immunity globally.

The headline response of Lugenpresse is nonsensical, disingenuous and negligent.

It seems that the powers that be (TPTB) have sent out a memo to keep a lid on sentiment surrounding this illness and its effects. There is nothing about this epidemic that compares to normal flu (see chart above). The CFR and serious complications are many multiples higher. This will have the effect of causing an actual panic (aka black swan) with a complacent population. And you can count on the Lugenpresse to dump the go-back-to-sleep tenor of its reporting at the proper moment.

Chinese oil demand has dropped 20% because of the lockdown. This is ultimately going to be the real message of economic output and production.

Numerous flights to China are being suspended. The Center for Aviation (CAPA) says it expects the Wuhan virus will have a “vastly” greater impact on the region’s aviation and tourism than that of SARS in 2003. The deaths from nCOv will far outpace SARS.

The Chinese economy is 17% of the world economy and deeply-integrated into international supply chains. It was just 4.5% of world GDP during the SARS epidemic in 2003.

“That is simply because in 2003 China’s role in international aviation and tourism was a pale shadow of its enormous presence today,” CAPA stated in a report last week.

Today, Chinese tourists constitute the largest proportion of international visitors for most countries in the Asia Pacific and are, in many cases, also the biggest per-capita spenders.

Today, in Macau, the world’s biggest gambling hub, casinos are closed for a supposed 15 days.

A cruise ship is locked down in a Japanese port with 3,700 people quarantined on board after it was revealed that an infected passenger flew into Tokyo and spent a few days on the ship. So far, 10 people on it have been confirmed with Wuhan coronavirus.

Hyundai is halting production in South Korea this week because of a component shortage.

iPhone shipments dropped by 10% in the first quarter due to coronavirus outbreak, according to Ming-Chi Kuo.  And that’s at the smaller front end of the pandemic.  Apple has closed all of its stores and offices in China.

Update: Foxconn Extends Delay, Won’t Restart iPhone Production Until Late February

Airbus shuts plant.

The U.S. shale industry is already in serious trouble. Lower oil prices and already extremely depressed natural gas prices will be the death knell in an industry already riddled with zombie bonds and debt.

There are trillions in walking zombie debt that has been artificially papered over. Printing money in an environment of shortages will only fuel runaway currency inflation. This kind of habitual financial market interference and manipulation is highly inappropriate.

17 Comments on Coronavirus (nCOv) as a Black Swan Event

  1. I just wanted to add a cheerful Coronavirus news story in case you haven’t heard it:

    “Inventive Aussies stuck on coronavirus cruise ship in Japan get their wine club to bring them two cases of booze delivered by drone”. The husband also jokingly asked for some knitting needles for his wife, because they were quarantined in their cabin. Now that’s the true Aussie spirit! 🙂

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7981025/Gold-Coast-couple-quarantined-Diamond-Princess-Cruise-Ship-wine-delivered-drone.html#reader-comments

  2. I 5hink the corona virus is just another hoax. Fake vids of people falling ALMOST flat on their face but then breaking the fall at last second, dead bodies piling up in hospital hallways or fake convulsing. I guess building a “hospital” in 10 days proves this is real? Hard to believe “woke” people are buying this crap, just another 911, boston bombing , sandy hook media production take your pick. I made a video on my youtube channel zoom truth that mocked the so called dead people lying on the streets; youtube age restricted it lol. Anyway, long story short, its FAKE.

      • I do think the end game is medical martial law and mandatory vaccines, but I see this as more of a controlled false flag than a staged deception. I lean more to escaped virus from that lab. The scheme seems confined to one province Hubei and around Wuhan – so far.

        The totally empty streets in Shanghai and Beijing is odd to me. There really isn’t that much extra risk being outside on the sidewalks – so why is everybody inside? And who is suddenly so sick they just drop on pavement? Should be able to at least find a comfortable spot, no?

        I am not sure what the angle is in shutting large parts of the economy down, except maybe to selectively disrupt supply chains to the US. And yet the markets rally- that is definitely rigged.

        • Agree with the dropping dead on the street lol, I think they mocking the zombies with that stuff haha. We will see, but the way I s3e shooting hoaxes is they qre 100% fake, so seems likely to me they continue with 5he fake stuff, people eat it up anyway haha; I used too not so long ago!

        • I think the “escape from the Wuhan Lab theory” is a cover story,,, akin to the pristine Saudi passports. IMHO this is a bioweapon engineered by the same folks bringing us 911. Gates and pals have discussed endlessly the need to reduce population and then there’s the Georgia Guidestones. Also, did you see the 201 event in October, where they “predicted” this exact scenario. Look at “201”…could mean 20-1 or January 20 or could reference “Agenda 21”. They want a One World Government and a pandemic bringing in martial law and crashing markets would be perfect all with a cover story of blaming the Chinese for “mishandling” the virus leading to an escape from the Lab.

  3. Speaking of black swans, Jim Chanos’ persistent bearish prognostications on TSLA have fueled what may have become the largest short squeeze for any individual stock in history. I don’t understand how he makes money, but both he and Kyle Bass are very bearish anything China.

    It may be that the Chinese labor/enviro arbitrage going on since Dec 6 2001 has outlived it’s usefulness. If that’s the case, look for China to be Chernobyled and Fukushima’d into oblivion.

  4. We lived in Mexico in 2009 during the fake swine flu pandemic. What really made people die of cytokine storm (lungs flooding with autoimmune over-response) had to do with airplanes thatching gray mushroom clouds over all the cites. You couldn’t see the cities from a distance of about twenty miles despite glorious cobalt blue clear skies all around. We had occasion to travel cross-country and saw this with Guadalajara, Leon, Aguascalientes, and so many more. It was hideously obvious the planes were turning off the chemtrails upon exiting the sickly gray skies, hairpinning around for the next pass and turning the chemtrails back on. This had been going on since January 2009. i almost died until discovering the potency of GSE in a spray mister which turned it all around. Blogs featured exasperated medical personnel lamenting that nothing was effective as they watched people suffocate in the prime of life. When the “swine flu” became official in May 2009, they already had amassed statistics from the aerosol campaign. They flung that upon the world, pretending it happened all at once. We saw taco stands close down, people adorn themselves with masks and gloves, etc. About a week later Mexicans began rolling their eyes at each other, saying WTF are we doing, acting like Americans? Suddenly every gutter was choked with discarded blue masks and gloves, and the taco stands went back into action despite presidential edict against them.

    Just saying. These events are manufactured. Furthermore the coronavirus numbers are not alarming. What numbers do alarm is all the US people dying of cancer/diabetes etc. because their bodies have been turned acidic due to aluminum, strontium, barium etc. in the air in concert with fluoride in the water. Elana Freeland says everyone’s basically dying of the same thing. All these tumors, heart attacks etc. are being provoked by calcium reflux provoked by fluoride exponentiated from the aluminized skies. Further exacerbated by all the wifi energies which do a fantastic job of making everyone’s blood Ph balance go acidic. This is all by design. Suggested reading/listening: Elana Freeland, Matt Landman, Dr. Barrie Trower, and so many more. Now there is the heart of the pandemic. The Wifi kills off immune systems and everything goes out of whack. We need to stop that kind of filth. The Gates’ designer coronavirus is nothing compared with that toxic goo.

  5. It pays if you grew up living next door to a family of magicians as I did. They would never reveal the tricks but over time I discovered that they learn by observing shitty magicians in action…The dropped card, the loose sleeve etc…You then start to put together a premise and that premise was always to observe things opposite of how the magician expects you to observe. If left arm is raised, look to the right arm…
    I suspect this is game set match for Eurasia’s ascension…A few decades of (light switch) Capitalism is no match for the West’s bag of tricks.
    There are countless examples of manufacturing businesses failing by over capitalizing for a better tomorrow and only to have the orders cancelled by those very same customers who then return with 10 cent on the dollar offers for the plant and equipment.
    My concern now is that with all of the face being lost, it wont be hard to start a shooting war.

    The only question I have is whodunnit

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