Black Swan Event: An unpredictable event that has potentially severe consequences. Characterized by its extreme rarity and its severe impact. Can cause catastrophic damage to an economy and, because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems. Money printing and plunge protection teams does not constitute a robust response.
The economic impact from the coronavirua (nCOv) is now baked in and can only accelerate. China extended its new year celebrations until Feb 9. There’s no way it comes back to business to any significant degree on the 10th. And how much more was the epidemic spread domestically during the holiday?
The shutting down of whole Chinese cities, says to me that this is much more serious than reported. Hong Kong reports first coronavirus death and is expected to close its borders today. American Airlines Group, the largest US carrier says it has suspended all its flights to and from Hong Kong.
Chinese authorities have enforced full community lockdown in Nanjing Province, population 8.35 million.
Empty streets in Beijing Feb. 4th.
As we go to press Shanghai has been locked down.
— RT (@RT_com) February 4, 2020
Movement of goods is curtailed in China. Trade from neighbors, such as Vietnam, is waning.
At press time India cancels valid visas to Chinese, and foreigners who visited China in last two weeks.
Politically correct Canada is asking for it. Entry granted without so much as a temperature reading.
A city of 10 million needs a supply of up to 30 million meals per day. How long do home food supplies last before the entire distribution system collapses? That’s the question seemingly few are addressing.
A University of Penn student in Wuhan calls it a zombie apocalypse where people are trapped. There are no vehicles on the street, everyone is hiding out in their homes, and businesses have all shuttered in the city of 11 million people.
Now threatening the food supply comes a “highly pathogenic” strain of the H5N1 bird flu reported in China’s Hunan province, Chinese officials said, according to a Saturday report from Reuters. This flu can potentially spread to humans and be extremely lethal — creating a megadeath black swan swarm.
Shortages cause price spikes, which causes pessimism — this, including the fact that the U.S. and China are highly leveraged optimism-fueled economies. What happens if vested interests actually start to worry their capital is under threat? Can interfering with the markets alter the reality? Financial markets have already long ago divorced from any fundamental underpinning.
Basic supplies to deal with a pandemic are in short supply. Let me guess. None of these items are manufactured in Australia. The majority are made in China. Whodathunk.
I’m a GP on the frontline #coronavirus response has depleted all stocks of the essential personal protective gear I need to keep myself and my team safe
— Kat McLean (@drkatmclean) February 3, 2020
There are official claims of 20,613 confirmed cases and 427 deaths. But we do not know real numbers of infected and dead. It wasn’t until mid January, that doctors starting testing for the virus. Even so, 291 cases on Jan 20 and 20,613 cases 15 days later is not exactly cause for complacency. There are 171,329 “under observation.”
Update Feb.5: This meaningless official claim of 28,018 confirmed cases on Chinese mainland, 236 cases in other countries, including 21 in HK, 10 in Macao, 20 on board a cruise ship in Japan and 11 in Taiwan – 563 deaths
Hong Kong University doctor and epidemiologist Gabriel Leung and his team said in a Jan. 31 report: “In our baseline scenario, we estimated 75,185 infections as of Jan 25.” And they were reporting on Wuhan alone. The pandemic is already exponential.
Significant percentages of the infection survivors will suffer from myocarditis and other heart and lung conditions/injury as the virus penetrates the heart muscle. Clinical features and complications of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan include acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]).
Dr. Francis Boyle, creator of the U.S. Bioweapons Act states: “The virus is potentially lethal and an offensive biological warfare weapon … which is why the Chinese government originally tried to cover it up.”
No. 2019nCoV survives in the excrement of the infected. This strongly suggests fecal as well as respiratory transmission is possible and challenges sewage treatment. In Africa, southeast Asia, and sub-continent India, this waste and respiratory combination would be deadly.
The virus survives five days on a normal surface. Mobile phone screens, computer keyboards, tables, faucets, dishware and other household objects may transmit the virus.
There are one million Chinese contractors working across Africa and coming and going from China. For example, Ethiopia has multiple flights to Chinese hubs and is operating business as usual. Bole, Ethiopia, in turn, connects to 45 African destinations.
There are suspected cases but, truthfully, are there no confirmed cases yet in Africa? Highly unlikely. There must be suppression and/or poor testing there given Africa’s importance to China’s plans. At the moment there are only two labs in the whole of Africa which can test for the virus, and countries (including Ethiopia) with a substantial level of travel to and from China.
Winter Watch takeaway: Look for Africa to emerge as the knockout blow.
This is massively under-counted due to (a) infected people not getting sick enough to get tested but can still infect others; (b) overwhelmed medical centers not being able to test everyone; and (c) political pressures to under-report wherever possible. (d) tendency for many people to avoid authorities, self quarantine and ride out infection alone or with close family members.
People are not exactly submitting to being taken away willingly.
— Steve Warner ✘ (@darkcityfm) February 3, 2020
There are five to 14 days between “confirmed infection” and “death,” which makes the claim of a 3% fatality rate problematic. In fact, many deaths will not be that quick, meaning death tolls will lag. People are dying in place in their homes, even of secondary causes like heart failure and effects of pneumonia after the flu has passed. This will be slow to be counted, if at all. There are many videos of people in body bags being removed from apartment flats.
Testing for coronavirus can be very inaccurate. Officials report it can take several tests to get a confirmation.
The big stampede out of Wuhan and nearby cities before they were locked down was around Jan. 22-25. An estimated 5 million escaped the epicenter cities. On average, one affected person infects at least four others with nCOv. It takes three to 14 days for any symptoms to show. That means many of those infected will only show a spike in sickness this week. Unlike most flus, there is no herd immunity globally.
The headline response of Lugenpresse is nonsensical, disingenuous and negligent.
It seems that the powers that be (TPTB) have sent out a memo to keep a lid on sentiment surrounding this illness and its effects. There is nothing about this epidemic that compares to normal flu (see chart above). The CFR and serious complications are many multiples higher. This will have the effect of causing an actual panic (aka black swan) with a complacent population. And you can count on the Lugenpresse to dump the go-back-to-sleep tenor of its reporting at the proper moment.
Chinese oil demand has dropped 20% because of the lockdown. This is ultimately going to be the real message of economic output and production.
Numerous flights to China are being suspended. The Center for Aviation (CAPA) says it expects the Wuhan virus will have a “vastly” greater impact on the region’s aviation and tourism than that of SARS in 2003. The deaths from nCOv will far outpace SARS.
The Chinese economy is 17% of the world economy and deeply-integrated into international supply chains. It was just 4.5% of world GDP during the SARS epidemic in 2003.
“That is simply because in 2003 China’s role in international aviation and tourism was a pale shadow of its enormous presence today,” CAPA stated in a report last week.
Today, Chinese tourists constitute the largest proportion of international visitors for most countries in the Asia Pacific and are, in many cases, also the biggest per-capita spenders.
Today, in Macau, the world’s biggest gambling hub, casinos are closed for a supposed 15 days.
A cruise ship is locked down in a Japanese port with 3,700 people quarantined on board after it was revealed that an infected passenger flew into Tokyo and spent a few days on the ship. So far, 10 people on it have been confirmed with Wuhan coronavirus.
Hyundai is halting production in South Korea this week because of a component shortage.
iPhone shipments dropped by 10% in the first quarter due to coronavirus outbreak, according to Ming-Chi Kuo. And that’s at the smaller front end of the pandemic. Apple has closed all of its stores and offices in China.
Airbus shuts plant.
The U.S. shale industry is already in serious trouble. Lower oil prices and already extremely depressed natural gas prices will be the death knell in an industry already riddled with zombie bonds and debt.
There are trillions in walking zombie debt that has been artificially papered over. Printing money in an environment of shortages will only fuel runaway currency inflation. This kind of habitual financial market interference and manipulation is highly inappropriate.