At 12:02 GMT the solar storm flare we’ve been concerned about hit and it is at X10. It is earth facing. There was also a smaller X2 earlier in the day.
A full coronal mass ejection (CME) is showing up on satellite, again earth facing.
Media reporting at our posting time is incredibly poor and unprepared. There is little news or information. Depending on the conditions, these CMEs may take hours or days to reach Earth (if they are Earth-directed) and can generate geomagnetic storms should they collide and interact with our planet’s global magnetic field. It is a combination of duration, speed and intensity of these storms that matters. Storms are global in scale and impact higher latitudes the most.
Update 6:00 AM UT: BPEarthwatch is projecting the CME storm to hit around noon EST on Saturday, September 9. The authorities, are using a wide arrival time range. Here space physicist Tamitha Skov covers the impact which she says is unknown. She admits at 6:25 space weather experts are spread thin. This video will give you a good background of this event.
NOAA says this, “a G3 Watch (strong) is now in effect for the 8 and 9 September UTC-days in anticipation of the arrival of another CME associated with the X9.3 flare (R3-Strong radio blackout) on 6 September at 1202 UTC (0802 ET). Analysis indicates likely CME arrival late on 8 September into early 9 September.”
19:00 UT update Thursday: 50% chance of X flares tomorrow. Today same sunspot blasted M7.3 and X1.3 flares.
Irma is projected to hit south Florida near Miami on Sunday and move northward along the coast line as a Cat 4. The big question is how far off shore will it track.