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Europe’s and US’ Half Winter Draws to an Inside Straight Flush

For the western world the half winter of 2022-2023 has produced a long shot fill of an inside flush. In fact the weather in Europe through the date of this post is the warmest on record. A number of nations across Europe have experienced record temperature highs in what meteorologists have called an “extreme weather event”. National records have fallen in eight countries – and regional records in another three. Warsaw, Poland, saw highs of 18.9C (66F). Temperatures in the Netherlands, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark and Belarus also broke national records.

Natural gas use in Germany has dropped 20% mostly on the heals of warm weather. The spirit of Albert Speer lives as Germany reopened it’s dirty coal mines in an epic effort to save their economy. Now coal provides 31% of German electricity production.

German engineers also managed to commission its second floating LNG import terminal amid race to replace Russian gas. Put up in record time Total says that the terminal in Lubin will cover 5% of Germany‘s gas demand. Germany is fast-tracking five LNG terminals.

Coal is dirty. This is low thermal value coal. LNG is expensive, competitive and has long distance supply lines via shipping. But combined with the inside flush draw on warm half winter, Germany will avert serious crisis for now.

Yet despite the good luck and this literal hundred of billions euros in war time investment and effort, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck once again laid out plans for the future of Germany’s energy supply. Germany is sticking to its plan to phase out coal by 2030 and will take its nuclear power plants off the grid for good later this year.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Effectively the US has also drawn to the inside flush on the warm half winter and has resorted to extreme expediency with massive draw downs of it’s strategic petroleum reserve. This has provided for exports and refinery feed to bring down fuel prices in the so called inflation fight.

US natural gas has been hammered by warm weather and speculative attack. Natural gas storage is not excessive but is average.

I suppose Europe and the US can roll the dice on winter not coming in the second half of the season. But not so fast, it ain’t over til the fat lady sings. Unfortunately old man winter is going to make his appearance in the northern hemisphere in short order.

Extreme cold nationwide in late January.

 Jan. 30,2023

 

3 Comments on Europe’s and US’ Half Winter Draws to an Inside Straight Flush

  1. The sad reality is that the war in Ukraine and the resulting crisis is saving countless lives per every Ukrainian killed. Without the war, we would surely have another winter or two of taking out a bunch of old people in hospitals.

  2. Extreme cold in January, eh? Well, since it’s been in February the last couple of years…and let’s not forget the Big Freeze of 2011 which began on Groundhog Day…. Geoengineering + Grand Solar Minimum equals…. As long as the power stays on… So what’s your status, ERCOT?

  3. There are no inside flushes, Russ. A flush is a hand consisting of five cards, all of the same suit. There are, however, inside straights, and inside straight flushes, as depicted above.
    It has been a very warm winter here in Oregon as well. Several degrees above normal.

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