Most stocks are already well into a bear market. Some names are pretty marked down. There are a few names I like, Uber for instance has a great moot and service I really use and appreciate as I no longer have a car. And they are moving into delivery.
But even this name can get cheaper and still sells at a 15 PE. I also spent time with ChatGPt gaming out how Uber drivers can make money at the fares they charge considering the auto depreciation, insurance and fuel costs. Chat says it is nearly impossible economics especially in more congested urban centers.
The other shoes to drop for me preempt going into already beaten down stocks. Nothing here looks that cheap.
The poor condition of the bond market has already been addressed on these pages, refer back to those posts.
MOVE is bond market volatility. VIX is stock volatility.
Around 60% of the S&P 500 stocks are, on average, 24% below their highs, which means they are already in a bear market. This has only happened twice before, once in 1973 and then in 1999, and in both instances, SPX entered a major downtrend.
With the SPX only 0.8% below their high, only 26% of the index trade above their 50 day moving average. 55% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading below their 200-day moving average.
Today’s “AI Big 10” (Mag 7 plus Broadcom, AMD and Micron) are 41% of US market cap, which is where all previous major bubbles peaked.
The trade has piled into ten Ai related stocks, and right as a Minsky Moment credit event is emerging in those names. This is similar to what happened in the precursor to the 2008 crash.
Moodys: We have growing concerns about the $3 trillion of hyperscaler commitments (and $2.5 trillion of LLM operators) that have not yet hit balance sheets while relying on future RPO that is largely circular in nature between the companies.
stop worrying about the bear market, get outside and take a deep breath pic.twitter.com/Rs0CfijS1f
— naiive (@naiivememe) October 8, 2025
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