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Is a Minsky Moment at Hand?

ILLUSTRATION: Tom Bachtell/The New Yorker

I am not terribly interested in delving into the economic-financial theories of Hyman Minsky (1919 –1996). Like most of the overrated tribe economists who dominate economic thinking, he was a fanboy of the Federal Reserve and saw it as the key to stabilizing the economic system with “wise interventions.” Naive Minsky (like others) seemed to believe that Alan, Ben, Janet and Jerome would make preemptive moves to stave off excesses, and could get their fellow banksters on the phone and use ‘suasion” and “policy tweaks” to talk the cowboyz, and riverboat gamblers with other people’s money, off of high ledges.

In fairness, Minsky didn’t live long enough to see his beloved Fed deliberately enabling and abetting out-of-control, criminal, wildcat finance and fueling three significant bubbles in the 21st century.

That said, despite his clown world view of realities, Minsky did offer a useful Financial Instability Hypothesis. In a nutshell, “investors” naturally take actions that expand the high and low points of cycles. He wrote:

“Over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance. Hedge financing units are those which can fulfill all of their contractual payment obligations by their cash flows … Speculative finance units are units that can meet their payment commitments on “income account” on their liabilities, even as they cannot repay the principle out of income cash flows … For Ponzi units, the cash flows from operations are not sufficient to fulfill either the repayment of principle or the interest due on outstanding debts by their cash flows from operations.”

In other words, lending and investing standards recede to levels that guarantee a failure or fault slip, generally called the “Minsky Moment.” The irony is that it is distortions not “good times” as many of the Minsky Ponzi units are now held in the portfolios of Minsky’s beloved central banks. They are also held in passive indexes managed by a group of insiders.

While writing and doing podcasts about the economy before the 2008-2009 financial crisis, I was constantly alluding to Ponzi units, fictitious capital, and the Minsky Moment, which ultimately arrived.

Today almost one out of four of the companies on the Russell 3000 Index are not making enough money to pay even the interest on their debts. That’s 44% more companies than last year. And last year before the scamdemic money priming, these zombies owed about $1 trillion. Now, it’s almost $2 trillion.

And here is the relative real interest rate on the bloated junk market today.  The Minsky moment passed some time ago and is in induced levitation mode.

The current situation makes 1998-2001 and 2006-2009 look like piker eras! Read ’em and weep. In hindsight, the Ponzi units of the 2008 crash were more concentrated with certain notorious financial wild men and criminals, who nearly brought the system down. Now, Hyman Minsky would be having a moment, rolling over in his grave.

Insiders are bailing at a record pace.

Thus, rather than cooling off speculative Ponzi excess as Minsky said they would, the central banks have doubled down and amplified it. Minsky defined it thusly: “The greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi finance, the greater the likelihood that the economy is a deviation amplifying system.”

5 Comments on Is a Minsky Moment at Hand?

  1. ⁣Rear Admiral Robert A. Theobald, ex-commandant of the American
    torpedo flotilla stationed at Pearl Harbour, in his book published under
    the title The Real Secret of Pearl Harbour, exposes how Roosevelt
    prepared and provoked this attack against the U.S. With a series of
    irrefutable proofs Rear-Admiral Theobald establishes that Roosevelt
    himself brought about the catastrophe of Pearl Harbour. On November
    26th, 1941, he sent such an insulting note to Japan that she was left
    with no other choice but to attack.
    “With the help of the note of November 26th,” states Admiral
    Theobald, “President Roosevelt purposely and irrevocably
    unleashed the war for the United States. Japan’s attempt to avoid
    the stranglehold was without success. She had either to surrender
    or to fight, and there was no doubt about her choice.”
    Despite the fact that American Intelligence had acquired the secret
    code of the Japanese fleet several months earlier, so that the American
    High Command knew in advance of every movement of this fleet, the
    Commandant of Pearl Harbour received no message at all, informing
    him that, due to the outcome of diplomatic negotiations, a Japanese
    attack was imminent. As much as four weeks earlier the chiefs-of-staff
    knew very well that the Japanese intended to overrun Pearl Harbour.
    They even knew the exact hour the Japanese warships and carriers left
    their home ports to attack Pearl Harbour. They succeeded even in
    intercepting the secret Japanese telegram containing the text of the
    declaration of war and commanding at the same time that this
    declaration was to be handed over to the White House at the exact
    time the first bombs were falling on Pearl Harbour.
    This catastrophe could have been averted easily,

    ⁣https://ia601800.us.archive.org/24/items/marschalko-louis-the-world-conquerors/Marschalko%20Louis%20-%20The%20world%20conquerors.pdf

  2. Thank you, Steve. I had previously known that Delano (there was a Delano on the first Fed board) Rosenfeld of the jewish slave shippers was the primary instigator of war if you discount the bankers who set up Japan with its war machinery while dragging the merkins through a credit depression and gold confiscation. These same fakirs bankrolled every side in every war of modern history, and the people they sacrificed were the same idiotic dupes who today eagerly go for their booster injections like zombies. They could have said hell no, we won’t go, but they never do in this fightin nation where the heroes set up sniper rifles on the rooftops overlooking the Fallujah ER to hit citizens wounded by the DU incoming, after kettling the males. It is sad as hell being from Hawaii and seeing the hero-worship, lies, and fake victimhood citizens learned from their jewish masters, but it has all taught us alot about human nature that no matter how advanced a civilization becomes, the dupery and stupidity only grows with the powers of the collective under hypnotic control. The people will always do as Goebbels said, and their masters will always be able to rely on moral hazard to sell them any bullshit they like.

    Take the Einstein Tzeilard letter to Delano Rosenfeld, quite the tribal affair just two years prior to the Pearl FF. It was hand delivered by a jewish banker, Sachs. Then all the lead technicians involved from Bohr to Teller to Oppenheimer to Cohen to Strauss were tribals. They love destruction and what a dedicated bunch of insane sayanim can carry out with counterfeit money. In fact once the Manhattan Project was underway they put out a story believed today that the conspiracy was absolutely top secret, but the fact was they were shipping America’s nuclear secrets, centrifuges,and even Treasury plates to the Soviets over the pole, because in the end, it was great to have missiles called Satan with thermonuclear devices aimed at the stupid merkins. Maybe they could get some bribed Congressman in 2021 on the armed svcs committee to start a nuclear war over Ukraine. Then their cutesy tool from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard a cult member might pretend to decry it while wearing the war costumery herself. The stupid merkins lap this stuff up like wildebeests. Well where I live thanks to these military heroes about twenty per cent of the water in Honolulu tastes like diesel. People love their heroes. No price is too great, while for their tribal masters, they never pay retail. Ask the tribal Senator from Hawaii, or that Mayor Roth, of Hawaii Island, whose name sounds like Mayer Rothschild almost. You just cannot make this stuff up better.

    I mean we kanakas might have walked on lava barefoot for centuries instead of wearing Tevas, but isn’t Teva also a tribal name??? And they call us stupid primitives! How stupid is a nation that attacks itself and lies about everything? At least killing their own is almost like a self regulating governor, oops, that would be the tribal Governor Lingle.

    What a clusterfuck of idiots out there, present company excepted. We people who invented surfing can only say thank you to the truther sites who do damn good sleuthing, their commenters and the head alii all due my praise as a real konohiki. I saw many of our kupuna (elders) after showboating up on the mauna to stop an observatory (righteous perhaps) betray us demanding illegal lockdowns and buying into the whole scamdemic narrative. About all I can say is I do hope they ride their booster “rockets” right into the ground to get this tension over with and clear the decks for some waves in peace before they blow us all up. The only thing that could stop them from tanking due to the boosters is the high dilution and placebo rate out here they have to maintain to avoid excess adverse reactions, and keep people from asking too many questions, in order to set up WWIII for the stupid ones back on the mainland, and probably farther back in Basel and Tel Aviv. I admit stupid people here too let it all happen and applaud it. They will never know the truth. Who would tell them, us? They don’t get pidgin well. That said about placebo in Hawaii, I personally know of some naive kupuna who died within one month here of the clotshots. Not many but some.

    Here is another really good account of FDR’s treachery that is hard to find-

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/guest/zamyatin092819.pdf

    I hate to even think it but you get my meaning: aloha oe.

    Aloha means “face breath”. We touch foreheads. We can do fist bumps too. Humans are great, well perhaps the non falseflaggers among us and the purebloods who survive until the Deagle stats come on. You truthers are my brothers and sisters. Aloha.

    • I held off on posting this link because there’s never ending facts about the treachery of FDR and Steve points out some good ones and I appreciate the book reference. That said, pajama people often get bogged down in facts, what they ignorantly see as the “minutiae” of the conspiracy. So regarding Pearl Harbor, I usually like to hit them with this front page story from the Hilo Tribune Herald that was printed on November 30, 1941… A week before the attack, and I just ask them to use common sense logic. I enjoy seeing the gears turning in their heads when I ask them if they really believe that it was a surprise attack, now knowing that a measly local Hawaii newspaper could divine such an event, when the entire vaunted U.S. intelligence apparatus, which Steve pointed out had already cracked the Japanese codes, was supposedly totally clueless about it. I guess the OSS didn’t read the papers in Hawaii…

      http://ralphepperson.com/hilo.htm

      Not to mention the fact that even if the OSS didn’t read newspapers and failed to decode the Japanese attack plans, they should have been able to detect the incoming Japanese flotilla via other reconnaissance methods, and in fact did so. Besides radar detection of the flotilla that was ignored (Any takers on Hanlon’s Razor? I hope not..), I was surprised to hear the account of the USS Ward that dropped depth charges inside the harbor hours before the attack in response to the detection of a submarine entering the harbor in the wake of a US ship, and the confirmation that the Ward actually did hit a Japanese midget sub that was recovered inside the harbor in 2002 by a Hawaiian research team. An interesting article sans the author’s concluding opinions:

      https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2021/12/07/new-pearl-harbor-book-tells-the-japanese-side-of-events-in-fateful-attack/

      The newspaper approach with pajama people will still garner Stockholm syndrome excuses from most but I’ve found it does break through with some who still believe their lying eyes.

      Cheers

  3. “Religious freedom!” says this neat slogan. But freedom of which for themselves the closed churches by the ruins of Christianity which had been destroyed by Bolshevik Jews, as well as, perhaps, the statue
    of Judas erected by Bolshevism in commemoration of Christ’s betrayer. But from the cataclysm of war, from the surge of blood and fire, from the smouldering ruins of destroyed cities, from the thunder of bombs dropped on innocent children, Roosevelt, the most fateful figure of the 20th century, now emerges!
    [Page 84]
    “This war will be Roosevelt’s war!” the right-wing Republicans were saying. But people like Morgenthau, Baruch, Frankfurter, Einstein and Oppenheimer, knew better:
    “This war will be our war! World Jewry’s war!”
    For Roosevelt, this late descendant of the Spanish Sephardim, was the prototype of the 20th-century politician. In him was to be found the
    personification of the Protocols, although he was world deliverer and puppet at the same time. Standing behind were the real masters of America. Freemasonry and the Elders of Zion, Zionist leaders and bankers and the Galician-born trade union Bolsheviks.“He is our President!” they said, “and his war will be our war!”
    We have substituted a caricature for the “real government”, say the Protocols, with the President elected by our creatures and slaves —the mob.
    https://ia601800.us.archive.org/24/items/marschalko-louis-the-world-conquerors/Marschalko%20Louis%20-%20The%20world%20conquerors.pdf

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