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Confidence in Accuracy of U.S. Election Matches Record Low

  • 59% are confident that votes will be accurately cast and counted nationwide
  • Republicans’ confidence (44%) at record low for either party
  • Postal service delays, fraudulently cast votes seen as “major” problems

By Justin McCarthy | 8 October 2020

GALLUP — Fifty-nine percent of Americans say they are “very” (19%) or “somewhat confident” (40%) that votes in the upcoming presidential election will be accurately cast and counted throughout the country, matching the low Gallup recorded in 2008.

The latest figure, collected in Gallup’s Sept. 14-28 poll, comes at a time when President Donald Trump has repeatedly questioned the validity of voting this year, which will include widespread mail voting amid the coronavirus pandemic. As in 2008, the country is grappling with a global economic crisis, and Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. is near its historical low point.

As would be expected given Trump’s view, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (44%) are expressing far less confidence than Democrats and Democratic leaners (74%) in the accuracy of the election.

The 11-percentage-point drop since 2018 in the national figure on confidence in election accuracy is largely driven by a 34-point drop among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The GOP’s current 44% level of confidence is the lowest Gallup has recorded for identifiers/leaners of either major political party in its trend dating back to 2004.

Democrats, on the other hand, have become slightly more confident in election accuracy since 2018, though this falls short of this group’s high of 83% in 2016. […]

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