Record-breaking snow and rainfall is providing further evidence that we are experiencing the effects of a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM), which we detailed in our April 11 post.
The atmosphere is cranking right now with a high global wind anomaly that, in turn, is generating unseasonable cold-air masses, rain and even May snow in some regions. Year to date, scientists have recorded 74 days without sun spots.
Duluth, Minnesota, broke several snowfall records, the local National Weather office said on May 9. By May 9, the city broke its May monthly snowfall record of 20.5 cm (8.1 inches) recorded in 1954. Since May 1, 27.6 cm (10.9 inches) of snow fell.
In Massachusetts over Mother Day, snow!
The all-time low high temperature of 49 F for May 13, set way back in 1914, was shattered on Monday when the mercury in Central Park only climbed to 48 F. Temperatures on Monday in the Big Apple were about 15-20 degrees below average.
With 919.48 mm (36.20 inches) recorded from April 2018 to May 2019, the United States has set its new year-long average rainfall record. The previous record average was 908.81 mm (35.78 inches) recorded from April 2015 to March 2016. Heaviest concentrations are in the Mid-Atlantic and Upper Midwest.
Indeed, farmers in these soil-saturated zones (shown in dark green) are unable to plant and are running out of time.
More severe weather and rain is heading for the grain growing zones later this week.
To clarify, this post is on GSM weather, not commodity prices or financial speculations. The variables for a grain bull market for punters: Last year was a bumper crop, stockpiles are currently large, and there is a trade war. However, weather could change all that, plus grain prices are low. Wheat moves seasonally starting in late June-July.
GSM in Europe?
A historic Arctic blast affecting much of Europe and parts of northern Africa over the past couple of days brought record amounts of snowfall for the month of May to parts of Switzerland. Some regions are dealing with heavy snow, below-freezing temperatures and late-season frost. Another blast of cold air is expected from May 11 to 18, with more heavy rain and snow.
Denmark’s capital, Copenhagen, has set a new record cold for the month of May with 0.8 °C (33.4 °F) measured in Frederiksberg on May 5.
There were numerous minimum temperature records for the month of May across the French Alps. On a national level, May 6 was the coldest May morning in 40 years.
Another shot of cold Arctic air will push toward continental Europe from May 11 through 14. Jet stream is a freakish North-South.
May 8, in Australia:
Winter Watch Takeaway
GSM periods associated with a colder climate pose increased risks for pandemic infuenza outbreaks. In fact, half of all pandemic influenza outbreaks between 1600 and 2000 C.E. occurred when both the northern hemisphere temperature and total solar irradiance levels were below the 1600-2000 C.E. average, which corresponded with the GSM periods of the Little Ice Age.
Historic pandemic influenza outbreak data has been extracted from six scientific publications, providing a review of the history of influenza and a general consensus on pandemic flu outbreaks (and major regional epidemics) back to 1500. These were plotted against the total solar irradiance and northern hemisphere temperature data reconstructions. [See the citations below for all the data.]
Between 1610 and 2000, 80 percent of influenza pandemics and epidemics (37/45) occurred at or within one year of a peak or trough in the total solar irradiance anomaly. At the same time, 64 percent (29/45) of influenza pandemics and epidemics occurred during a negative northern hemisphere temperature anomaly.
This is no time for Super Bugs, which are being developed in giant outdoor-waste antibiotic resistance Petri dishes in Hyderabad, India. This is the real threat, not CO2 “warming” and small measles outbreaks.
The total solar irradiance (TSI) reconstruction was based on NRLTSI2 (Coddington et al., BAMS, 2015 . http://spot.colorado.edu/~koppg/TSI/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction.txt. (3) Influenza pandemic and epidemic publications: (a) B. Lina, 2008, History of Influenza Pandemics. In: Raoult D., Drancourt M. (eds) Paleomicrobiology. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75855-6_12. (b) E. Tognotti, 2009, Influenza pandemics: a historical retrospect. Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 3:331-334. doi: https://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.239. (c) C. Potter, 2001, A history of influenza. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 91: 572-579. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x. (d) J.K. Taubenberger and D.M. Morens, 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2006;12(1):15-22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. (e) Edwin D. Kilbourne, Influenza. Chapter 1; History of Influenza. Springer Science & Business Media, 6/12/2012 – Medical. ISBN 978-1-4684-5239-6. (f) Svenn-Erik Mamelund, Influenza, Historical. December 2008. International Encyclopedia of Public Health, First Edition (2008), vol. 3, pp. 597-609.