Hormuz is constrained, Bab al-Mandab is under threat, Suez can’t handle fully laden VLCCs.
183 Ukrainian strikes have already hit Russian vessels in the Black Sea. This route carries 3.7 million barrels a day, including CPC Blend, and it has no bypass.
The US refining sector is on the brink of total collapse. The Trump administration recklessly drove refineries to the breaking point and maintenance has been deferred. Refineries are often shut down during hurricane or storm season which has just arrived.
🚨 BOMBSHELL! Expert Bob McNally confirms the US refining sector is on the brink of total collapse.
The Trump administration recklessly drove refineries to the breaking point.
With maintenance delayed, a massive supply shock is imminent. Washington guarantees a catastrophe! https://t.co/bhaKLJiHy3 pic.twitter.com/CoPU7RePpT
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) July 23, 2026
Diesel in the North East keeps smashing to new all-time highs. Inflation dead ahead. pic.twitter.com/VM8v5YawZB
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) July 23, 2026
This goes far beyond oil and refined product, as both Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports via the Black This Sea are disrupted. This is occurring during harvest. Ten days stoppage can cause severe local damage when grain is arriving and elevators are full. Poor weather in another exporter or a wave of export controls and quotas (including from Big Brain Trump) would be an absolute trainwreck.
World wheat stocks not including China are exceedingly low. The US and Europe are already bone dry. China is prepared.
Lost supply:~30% of fertilizers – ~20% of LNG – ~10% of oil – ~30% of helium. These aren’t isolated commodities…. they sit at the core of entire production chains: – Petrochemicals -> fertilizer -> food production.
More shitstorm chokepoints: Kazakhstan is one of the largest producers of sulfur in the world, providing over 20% of global trade. In May, citing global shortages, Russia announced a ban on sulfur exports through its territory. The measure affected Kazakh sulfur already loaded on railcars transiting through Russia, with those shipments redirected to storage within Russia.
Then there’s the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is set to be the strongest in more than 75 years. This raises the risk of adverse weather conditions across the US, Asia, Australia, and South America. The stronger the weather event becomes, the greater the threat to critical food supply chains, which are already vulnerable to drought, flooding, export restrictions, and rising protectionism.
El Nino will hurt monsoon rains and food production in India and Southeast Asia. (source: Zero Hedge)
Weather is controlled by Pentagon
Yeah, okay. The weather modifiers and their propaganda arm are completely incapable of predicting the weather past today. Yesterday, in the middle of a large storm and heavy rain, I get an alert from the national weather service to warn us of a severe storm thats already overtop. Take a look at the jet stream at 40,000 feet and notice how erratic it is, then compare it to the southern hemisphere where it’s not being manipulated. And lets not forget Iran’s 10 year drought abruptly ended when they destroyed the US militaries so called “radar stations”. They want us to believe that amidst all the destruction and mayhem going on that it’s some type of natural event that will destroy crops? Not buying it.