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Getting Whipped Will Really Hurt

GRAPHIC: Alhambra Institute

By Jeffrey P. Snider | 28 June 2022

ALHAMBRA INVESTMENTS — The Federal Reserve’s various branches don’t just do manufacturing surveys anymore. This is a modern economy, after all, meaning industry isn’t the same top dog as what it used to be. While still important, and still able to tear down even the global-iest synchronized of growth-y, services are the big macro enchilada.

Reflecting this fact, there are now regional Fed services surveys producing services indices to go along with the manufacturing sentiment stuff. I’ll start with the one from Dallas for all of Texas because this one was released today with the latest estimates for June 2022.

In a word: worse.

The Dallas Fed Texas Services General Business Index plummeted, yes, plummeted, to -12.4 this month from last month’s not-good-at-all +1.5. More concerning still, the Future General Business Index crashed, yes crashed, to -24.0 from -3.9 (and in the 20s back in February).

This is what recession would look like for all those Texans. But it’s not just the one region or the one economic sector, is it? […]

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