This post is in no way to be taken as investment advice. It’s merely my observations on the dire conditions now in play.
It’s not Covid-19 that’s the challenge to a highly levered and central bank-infected market. It’s the trigger lock down and bail out (looting) policy response.
As of today, there are officially 7,174 deaths worldwide. Given the hysteria and response, one would think there were a million dead.
China, which just a few weeks ago apparently (?) was hell on earth, “mysteriously” seems to be stabilizing in the real world — exactly as predicted in the Rockefeller coronavirus simulation back in 2010.
I have been tracking indicators such as Shanghai freeway traffic as a tell. Here we see that starting last Friday road conditions were back to normal. Strange indeed.
So I increasingly believe this is all about instilling panic, looting and imposing draconian restrictions on people.
The U.K. is asking those over the age of 70 to “self-isolate” for four months.
California is asking this for those over age 65. Seven San Francisco Bay Area counties have been given orders to “shelter in place” for two weeks, including the Financial District and Silicon Valley.
Are such orders enforceable? What’s the physical or mental effect add-on effect of sitting isolated at home glued to the news? The “okay, Boomer” crowd can now clip their zero-interest Treasury coupons and bank deposits?
The immune systems of Boomers runs the gamut, with many being quite healthy. At 69, I’m in good health. Two of my parents lived to age 96, and one is still alive. There’s no way I will stay locked in my flat with spring finally arriving. My biggest risk is the belly, so I will mega dose on vitamin C and head out to join the pigeons on the empty streets and at the river and park for exercise. Is the well being of older people really being considered here?
Elsewhere, an entire population is being put at additional risk as Denmark is the first country to mandate forced untested Covid-19 vaccination.
And taking the cake is an Orwellian cartoon world plan in Israel for surveillance of their citizens’ phones “to track” coronavirus victims like “terrorists.”
Let the Next Loot Phase Begin
The current policy response will allow irresponsible companies to loot an empty U.S. Treasury. The apparatchiks are proposing a vague “stimulus” with few real details. The number and term referred to by the neuro-linguistic shadow language ops is a “bazooka” of $850 billion. In general, these are tax cuts that will be added to the already ballooning trillion-dollar deficit.
Companies like Boeing used their financial reserves in the last several years to give options to their executives and then pissed away $100 billion in inflated stock buy backs in the $300 to $400 range. This gives you a clue about why a giant stock market bubble materialized. Many companies borrowed money to do this.
This is lowest-common-denominator, kakistocratic, slash-and-burn behavior — and will be rewarded by the sistema in place. Boeing after, pissing their capital away, is right there with hand extended asking for a $60 billion bailout. Of course, the employees of Boeing will be thrown under the bus as hostages.
It’s not just Boeing. Replay this travesty across the broad spectrum.
What will now transpire is the final series of downgrades and the defacto bankruptcy of the U.S. Treasury, while the sleazy corruptos pick the winners and losers among the zombies.
Many lizard lip-licking types are scouring for the stocks with the most political gangster clout to trade during this looting process. But that’s not my style — nor do I get the insider memos.
One industry Winter Watch has discussed that the Crime Syndicate may waste funds on is the failing fracking or shale oil industry. We have addressed that before. If you invest in oil, go with the diversified, larger, well-financed, major oil companies, not super capital-intensive, high negative externality, zombie, shale oil and gas that Trump wants to “save.”
There’s also supposedly a dollar funding shortage. Don’t be confused about what this means. There’s enormous dollar-based debt globally, and the debtors are broke. They have few dollars to service the debt. Dollar funding will evaporate once the zombie debtors default and are liquidated. Thus, this short-run squeeze sending the dollar higher will end. Dollars awash in the world will flood into the U.S. domestic economy, which is already suffering from JIT (just in time) inventory difficulties. This is a classic hyper-inflationary environment when combined with Q.E. money printing.
Meanwhile, real assets and hard money are sold off to raise U.S. dollars. Additionally, assets like gold, silver, platinum and oil were — until now — too crowded with futures speculators. Until the last few days, I held none of these and was in cash — and in fact held QID, a double short of the QQQ; and SH, a short of the S&P 500. I’ve scaled out during these swoons.
But as of today, the speculators have cleared out of Dodge with these long real-asset bets. In fact, I would surmise they are net short. And at this point, my personal financial goal is to convert clown bucks into real assets that the specs have shorted. This, to my eyes, looks like a similar set up to late 2008 and late 2015, which were launch pads.
If you check the Commitment of Traders (CoT) Report, near the market close next Friday you will see this liquidation. The CoT reports Tuesday’s positioning. Scroll down the page to the March 17 report and hit “Long Format.” I mostly key on the Managed Money (MM) section. These are large speculators and hedge funds.
If we look at the silver CoT, we see that on March 10, with the price of silver (PoS) at $16.88, the MM boyz were net long about 26,700 contracts. That’s fairly average in the greater scheme of things. Silver is well under $13.00 as of now, so those net long postions are gone and may in fact be net short, possibly much so in the plumbs toward $12.00.
Silver’s problem for the bulls (in normal markets) is that the producers and merchants get aggressive with locking in price in the stronger rally phase and cap the rallies. One can only monitor this in the next phase.
I’m a radical doubter, so I do not feel comfortable recommending any vehicle. The financial sector is rife with criminals. So please don’t ask me for precise entry points or vehicles. But I’m not a stacker, and I’m not interested in keeping and dealing with wide bid-ask spread coins and bars. I use vehicles that can be traded with very narrow bid-ask spreads.
I’ve always used the Sprott physical bullion instruments for gold (PHYS) and silver (PSLV). Note that their platinum group vehicle (PSSS) is about half palladium, and I only think platinum is ready at the moment. Platinum is much more rare than gold. At $650, it’s trading at a monster $830 discount to gold. PPLT is a vehicle for this precious metal. It has a wider spread, but fills well inside.
I have some mining company speculations I use for such occasions. The miners and juniors have had severe sell offs. This is artificiality mentioned in the following Fred Hickey tweet that describes the likely cause — at least in part.
But in the real world, a $1,400 handle for gold combined with low fuel costs is a very favorable environment for the lower-cost producers in this sector. They should be reporting spectacular earnings as other sectors do quite the opposite.
Peoples’ ire shouldn’t be directed at VanEck funds(GDX, GDXJ). They’re unlevered ETFs. It’s these Direxion 2x, 3x levered ETFs(JNUG, NUGT) causing the wild distortions. They’ve caused similar collapses in miners’ stocks before. They undermine investor confidence in the group. https://t.co/vGT9ERArJd
— fred hickey (@htsfhickey) March 13, 2020
The Sport of Speculation
https://www.thechicagoeconomist.com/episodes/the-sport-of-speculation
Seems to be a grand cull of boomer pensioners that is underway
“Eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/terrifying-new-research-warns-22-million-could-die-us-without-drastic-action
“CULLING THE ELDERLY?
When late 1800s Germany introduced modern worker pensions, the average lifespan was only a couple of years beyond retirement age – a worker retiring at age 65 was beating the odds if he lived past age 67.
Running Covid-19 pandemic statistics and data, Anatoly Karlin points out that we have plausible scenarios where, life expectancy can again reduce to the 66-67 age range, thus ‘saving’ retirement and social benefit funds
Elites in China and the USA share common interests in reducing the strain on national budgets from pensioners, now living much longer after exiting the labour force.
Could the real story be secret US-China collusion? … After all, there is a ‘Chabad hotline’ between Beijing China Chabad, and the Washington DC Chabad attended by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.”
https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/Is-the-Coronavirus-a-Chinese-Chabad.html
We seem to be gutting the economy around where I live, which is tantamount to killing the 97% to save the 3%. Every year till we come to our senses.
Just read your Makow post, Brabantian, thanks! Chabad is far more dangerous than Covid-19!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI
“Stunning insights into the Corona-panic by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg.”
A German pulmonologist says the CV numbers are meaningless without any baseline on Coronavirus numbers. CV has always been implicated in Acute Respiratory Infection as cause or covirus.
” Without PCR-Tests there would be no reason for special alarms.
We are currently not measuring the incidence of coronavirus diseases, but the activity of the specialists searching for them. ”
Good articles here at his website, some in German but in English, tool
link: https://www.wodarg.com/
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar20/insolvent3-20.html
” I increasingly believe this is all about instilling panic, looting and imposing draconian restrictions on people ”
– that’s where I am now, as well – 3 dead in NJ (incl a man 90+) and virtual universal house arrest is just around the corner; more and more meta evidence suggesting a cartoon world operation – threads come into play then disappear without a trace – explosive growth in Africa! then in our African gulag – the prisons! – oh! – never mind… active on surfaces 9 days? – “reports” today suggest 2-3 – and on and on (whatever happened to the Trump-sat-next-to-the-guy-who… story? – I un-glued from the news on the weekend – and it was gone on Monday!).
https://www.worldometers[dot]info/coronavirus/country/us/
This site reports 6254 “currently infected patients in the US” 6242 cases being classified as “mild” (yes, 100%) – yet NJ gov talking to the US Army about building mobile hospitals. Signs today on a major highway promise “viral testing center at [outdoor arts center] soon” – so cases will “explode” here by the end of the month.
Strange days in cartoon world!
@regretLeft- I’m in NJ too–it’s insane here! They had one dead guy 69, but it turns out that he had diabetes, high BP, atrial fibrillation, emphysema, and a GI condition that caused internal bleeding–yet I’m supposed to believe it was the virus that took him out.
Russ- I agree with you 100% on this: “I increasingly believe this is all about instilling panic, looting and imposing draconian restrictions on people”
And many have been warning that the US economy has been in freefall (long before the virus) and that we are headed for collapse (Lynnette Zang, Greg Mannarino, Jeremiah Babe, Mike Maloney). They are saying that the virus will be the cover story for the collapse, so the central bankers and politicians don’t get blamed. Mike Maloney, in his Hidden Secrets of Money, says we are heading into the greatest wealth transfer the world has ever seen. Others are saying we are headed for the greatest depression in world history.
A ‘stay in place’ order was given in San Francisco today and I predict it will be nation-wide within a week! In Italy they have made everyone sign and have a ‘consent decree’ document in their possession when they are ‘allowed’ out in the streets for work, medical, etc.
https://marypatriotnews.com/it-begins-italians-are-getting-arrested-and-face-3-months-in-jail-for-violating-new-decree-video/
It looks like the Fed is ‘outta bullets’ and they are preparing for the house-of-cards to come down and are just using the Corona-panic as a cover. Soon anywhere will be considered a ‘quarantine zone.’ Take a look at what Canadian’s are staring at under ’emergency measures!’
Mr. Winter, the range of topics touched by your insights are far, wide, and deep. Very kind of you to organize this website to inform, entertain, and educate the hoi polloi. Well done Sir!
Hey Russ-
Greatly appreciate your insights here.
I’m a clinical psychologist and have no background in any of this, I’m just trying to understand and possibly learn (not taking anything you say as financial advice)
Could you explain more of what you said here:
“Until the last few days, I held none of these and was in cash — and in fact held QID, a double short of the QQQ; and SH, a short of the S&P 500. I’ve scaled out during these swoons.”
As is in, what is a “double short of QQQ”.
Thanks again for all you do to get the truth out there.
I don’t believe anything they say about the so-called virus (I think there is so much scientific fraud with virology that they have no credibility).
I think the virus is a cover story for mass looting in the form of bailouts (or are these really bailouts–Greg Mannirino seems to say that they are NOT bailouts and that what is happening is nationalization of industry, merger of state and corporate power, as in fascism?). Seems like all we have is more in-your-face tyranny. I don’t believe for one second that the US govt gives a crap about the American people.
Trump is NOT the man who campaigned in 2016.
Also, do you have a response to this BS from Trump propagandist, Sundance, who is now pushing the BS that the collapse is b/c Main Street is now the priority (LOL!!!!) LOL- Yes, M ain Street is now the “priority” as “Main Street” is forced to bail out every other industry in this nation, as workers are losing their jobs over these INSANE policies over a fake virus, and retirees are losing everything they ever worked for. Yet we are supposed to believe that they are working for the middle class???? Sorry but I have been following Greg Mannarino, Lynnette Zang, Jeremiah Babe, and Mike Maloney (hidden secrets of money, where he talks about how we are going through the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world) and they have been talking about how the economy is in free-fall (long before the virus), which is in contrast to the information that Sundance has been pushing:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/18/part-i-coronavirus-as-a-global-economic-reset/ ( I can no longer comment here b.c I will lose my temper, but this “Sundance” seems to be pushing the idea that “trump is a nationalist” and that the “collapse of wall street” is b/c Main street is now a “priority” (LOL!! yeah right!!!):
“How, specifically would Wall Street reset it’s evaluatory systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?… and I will outline how COVID-19 can be the spark to reset that evaluation system.” ( I seriously cannot believe that this guy is trying to push the idea that Trump is working for mainstreet/the middle class, when through his colluding with the central bankers (in calling for negative to low interest rates) he was been working toward the destruction of the middle class and setting the middle class up potentially for hyperinflation..
https://www.sott.net/article/431033-Senator-Burr-enabled-Russiagaters-for-years-now-they-re-accusing-him-of-insider-trading-coronavirus-lies
QQQ is the big tech index. QID is 200% short of that index. I am not using this at the moment.
The gubnut will only nationalize valuable economic assets and only short term to keep them operating. They will then conduit them to their Crime Syndicate cronies in Mnuchin’s Rolex.
The analogue for the Trumpensteins and Main Street is Poletown Detroit- read Ghost Town Poletown, Detroit: Slash-and-Burn Kleptocracy on Full Display https://www.winterwatch.net/2020/03/ghost-town-poletown-detroit-slash-and-burn-corrupto-capitalism-on-full-display/