Reports are coming from Israel that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is carrying out a ‘massive transportation’ of logistics towards the Israeli-Lebanese border. I24 News out of Israel announced: “If diplomatic efforts fail, Israel will invade southern Lebanon and force Hezbollah beyond the Litani River.”
Thousands of so-called elite IDF soldiers belonging to the Golani Brigade have been deployed to the Northern front, after having left unresolved Gaza in the past few weeks.
Hundreds of tanks, APCs and IFVs have also been transferred to the border with Lebanon. Golani was lead unit and was hit with losses in Gaza and we presume it has been reconstituted.
We have learned that the arms deal between the US and Israel will be fulfilled two years from now and will not be a factor in what lies ahead.
I predict and with high certainty that Hezbollah (H) is loaded with ATGMs (Anti-tank Guided Missile). This is more powerful than the highly effective weapon of choice in Gaza, the RPG. H like Hamas has capable motivated soldiers. ATGMs can be used long-range on other targets besides armor and is dug in and concealed. They also have Russian Oniks anti-ship missiles.
Even before the recent conflict Israeli think tanks have been concerned about transfers of Russia’s state of the art S-300 air defense missiles into Lebanon. We say it is now fiat accompli, but the early days of the north front war will reveal more in terms of how many H has and how they are deployed.
In a tour of H facilities back in October to media, the guide said, “Do you think we don’t have S-300?” he says, switching to English for effect. “If Iran has S-300, absolutely Hezbollah will take S-300.” This is no bluff.
Regardless the Israeli air force will likely not have free reign over Lebanese skies. S-300 are long range and can be stand back about 100 miles. They are fired from mobile tubes.
Even before the Gaza genocide went into full overdrive, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, warned “if the Zionist aggressions do not stop, the hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger,” in comments reported by state media.
Israel’s wild ass gamble concerning an invasion of Lebanon is that various state actors haven’t loaded H to the teeth with cutting edge weaponry and that the US, facing an emerging anti-war movement and depleted munitions stocks, will get involved to any significant degree.
Since the answer is likely net negative for Israel I can visualize a probe in force to gauge the costs and order of battle. That’s what smart commanders would try. The problem is that the level of hubris of the Israeli leadership and public is so out of control that they may try to draw to an inside straight against a three of a kind.
An Israeli military security source stated before the conflict that Hezbollah (H) has the capacity to fire 2500 rockets a day into Israel. During the entire 2006 conflict of 34 days, Hezbollah fired 4000 total rockets into Israel. Estimates of H rockets range between 125,000 to 200,000. After three months of genocide it wouldn’t be surprising of H now had north of 200,000. I don’t think H and the Axis of Resistance has been sitting out preparations since October.
And besides the Golani Brigade they will enter Lebanon and fight Hezbollah with these goofs?
They will enter Lebanon and fight Hezbollah Fighters with these puppies 😂😂
I think they are going to make a biggest mistake since their occupation till now pic.twitter.com/YrynTHFn5b
— Tahir Hussain (@TahirHussa99503) January 27, 2024