Major clues will arrive early Tuesday evening on election night. Two states stand front and center: North Carolina and Florida, which close voting at 7:30 p.m. EST. Both states will immediately report the already counted mail-in and early ballot box tally at that hour. Without winning those states, a Trump win is highly unlikely.
Nationally to date, voters have cast 68.2% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election. In 2016, 40% of the vote was cast early.
However, there is fog surrounding mail-in ballots that have yet to be returned. As of Sunday, there are 31,958,869 outstanding mail-in ballots that have not been entered as “returned” by election officials.
There are many unknowns and potential for dispute with the outstanding mail ballots:
- Some mail ballots are in transit.
- Some states continue to accept mail ballots well beyond Election Day, if postmarked by Nov. 3.
- Some ballots are at election offices but have not been entered into databases.
- It’s unclear how election officials manage data for voters who requested a mail-in ballot but chose to cast their vote in person instead.
Still, voters have voted early by mail or at voting centers at an astonishing rate of 95% in North Carolina and 90.8% in Florida versus 2016 final vote. More than three quarters of Florida’s mail-in votes were cast early as of Sunday, compared to 40% in 2016. So these are high turnouts of mostly Democrat voters, which to my eye signals voting skulduggery and illegal aliens voting, as reported by Project Veritas.
Of the requested but not-yet-received ballots, the solid majority are Democrats. Getting these counted through a ground game or ballot harvesting will be the key to a Biden win, which is also the basis for disputes and challenges sure to come.
The optics of the early return will point to a blue wave Democrat victory in Florida because of the demographics of mail-in ballots and the fact they will be reported right away.
However, as the evening goes on, the in-person Florida voting is gradually reported. The big Biden lead will be closed, which will be World Wide Wrestling optics for all who care about the outcome. The talking heads on the networks might use Biden’s early lead to promote a bandwagon effect. Then, when it switches to Election Week, the bubbles of the crybabies will burst. Then come the protests and color revolution set ups.
The national pollsters are calling Florida to be close, also indicating the prospects for post-election chaos and disputes.
North Carolina reports early votes right away. Here, it points to a very close outcome, which is supported by the polls. But it doesn’t look like the Democrat early vote ground game was as strong in North Carolina as it was in Florida. Also, North Carolina had a very high in-person vote. Therefore, the 7:30 p.m. report may reflect the actual outcome in this state and give a real clue on the national election, if one candidate has a lead. More likely is that North Carolina will be too close to call until all ballots are counted.
Pennsylvania will be reporting votes for days, as votes are counted on Election Day only. The same is true for the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin. So 8 p.m., the voting close won’t tell much. The Democrats have mounted a very successful early mail-in ballot campaign.
But there are also a large number of ballots requested that have not been returned. This opens the way to all manner of dispute and shit storms.
Pollster mucky muck Nate Silver has a caveat after weeks of confidently proclaiming a Biden win: Pennsylvania. Nationally, Silver gives Trump a 10% chance of winning compared to 15% in 2016.
“Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points,” Silver told ABC’s “This Week” (sporting a new ‘battle beard’) adding that if Trump were to win, “it would come down to Pennsylvania.”
Silver then sets the expectation for an unfair vote, saying “Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved.
Meanwhile, Trump drew massive crowds across Pennsylvania. In Butler County, tens of thousands of supporters turned out in what the Epoch Times described as “a scene more reminiscent of a rock concert than a political event.”
On the subject of polls, there is ample evidence that Trump voters are less likely to reveal their intent given the doxing and intimidation by leftist and struggle-session Marxists in the land. We can assume that the polls in Pennsylvania are closer than a 4% to 5% Biden lead.
Weather conditions nationwide are pleasant, favoring a Republican polling booth turn out. Trump has enough momentum down the wire to make it interesting and Election Month contestable.
Ohio has more than 3 million requested mail-in ballots not received and another roughly 3 million received. Ohio is a dead heat and promises to be a shitstorm. Ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 2 and arrive at the board of elections by Nov. 13 will be counted in the final vote tally. Boards of elections can begin tallying the official canvass on Nov. 14, and final official results and reports are due to the Ohio Secretary of State no later than 2 p.m. on Nov. 24.
An automatic Ohio recount for votes for president would be triggered “when the difference between votes cast for the declared winning nominee, candidate, question, or issue and the declared defeated nominee, candidate, question, or issue is equal to or less than one-fourth of one percent (0.25%) of the total votes cast in the race or issue.”
Texas is another state that some think may be leaning to Biden because of extremely high early voter turnout — a 108% of the 2016 total. However, when the details are examined, it turns out Texas had a huge in-person polling booth early turnout of 8,745,565 that would favor Republicans. There were only 973,083 mail-in ballots. The polls are tight. Trump needs this state to win.